Download PDF by Abraham C.-L. Chian: Complex Systems Approach to Economic Dynamics

By Abraham C.-L. Chian

Fiscal platforms show complicated dynamics evidenced via large-amplitude and aperiodic fluctuations in fiscal variables, reminiscent of foreign currencies premiums and inventory marketplace costs, indicating that those structures are pushed faraway from the equilibrium. Characterization of the advanced habit of monetary cycles, by means of making a choice on normal and abnormal styles and regime switching in fiscal time sequence, is the main for development attractiveness and forecasting of financial cycles. Statistical research of inventory markets and foreign currency echange markets has verified the intermittent nature of financial time sequence. A nonlinear version of commercial cycles is ready to simulate intermittency bobbing up from order-chaos and chaos-chaos transitions. This monograph introduces new strategies of risky periodic orbits and chaotic saddles that are volatile buildings embedded in a chaotic attractor, answerable for monetary intermittency.

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Kholodilin (2003) introduced structural shifts in the US composite economic indicator via deterministic dummies and evaluated the US monthly macroeconomic series specified by the regime-switching model. Bautista (2003) used regime-switching-ARCH regression on the Philippine stock market data to estimate its conditional variance and relate to episodes of high volatility including the 1997 Asian financial crisis; this study identified a period of high stock return volatility preceding a bust cycle marked by a sequence of low-growth periods.

Kholodilin (2003) introduced structural shifts in the US composite economic indicator via deterministic dummies and evaluated the US monthly macroeconomic series specified by the regime-switching model. Bautista (2003) used regime-switching-ARCH regression on the Philippine stock market data to estimate its conditional variance and relate to episodes of high volatility including the 1997 Asian financial crisis; this study identified a period of high stock return volatility preceding a bust cycle marked by a sequence of low-growth periods.

In addition, we showed that unstable periodic orbits are the skeleton of a chaotic attractor. The complex dynamics of an economic system can be displayed by the Poincar´e map and by the bifurcation diagram, which often contains many periodic windows. We identified a periodic window within which complex dynamics is found, with the presence of five attractors; the beginning of this periodic window is marked by a saddle-node bifurcation (in terms of attractors A1 and A2 ) and the end of this periodic window is marked by the onset of an attractor merging crisis.

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