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Extra info for Decision Theory A Brief Introduction =decision theory A Brief Introductio
This method assumes that "unless their judgment is clouded at the time by wishful thinking, forgetfulness, inattentiveness, low intelligence, immaturity, senility, or some other competence-inhibiting factor, all subjects reason correctly about probability: none are programmed to commit fallacies" (p. 251). He does not believe that there is "any good reason to hypothesise that subjects use an intrinsically fallacious heuristic" (p. 270). If intellectually well-functioning subjects tend to decide in a certain manner, then there must be some rational reason for them to do so.
1982, p. 331) Perhaps surprisingly, the effects of overconfidence may be less serious when experts' estimates of single probabilities are directly communicated to the public than when they are first processed by decision analysts. The reason for this is that we typically overweight small probabilities. 1 % and a 2 % risk of disaster. This has often been seen as an example of human irrationality. However, it may also be seen as a compensatory mechanism that to some extent makes good for the effects of overconfidence.
Cohen 1985, p. 1) This form of expected utility has the advantage of intersubjective validity. Once expected utilities of the type used in risk analysis have been correctly determined for one person, they have been correctly determined for all persons. In contrast, if utilities are taken to be subjective, then intersubjective validity is lost (and as a consequence of this the role of expert advice is much reduced). 3 Appraisal of EU The argument most commonly invoked in favour of maximizing objectivist expected utility is that this is a fairly safe method to maximize the outcome in the long run.