By Roger Liddle
This is a serious time for the connection among Britain and Europe, as politicians debate the predicament dealing with the ecu Union and Britain’s position inside of it. This moment variation is composed mostly of recent fabric that charts how contemporary political advancements have replaced the talk surrounding Britain’s club of the european. Following the 2015 common election and with the promise of an coming near near referendum on Brexit, the publication now considers:
-How has the renegotiation schedule shifted?
-How are european companions responding to threats of departure from Britain?
-What used to be the influence of the 2015 normal election?
-What are the politics of a referendum on club in 2017?
- How can a pro-European case be made?
By looking solutions to those questions, Roger Liddle assesses the impression of a sequence of miscalculated gambles by way of David Cameron and his forebears that leaves Britain teetering at the fringe of an go out from the eu Union.
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Additional resources for The Risk of Brexit: The Politics of a Referendum
Cameron first said he would refuse to pay and then said only that he would not pay by 1 December 2014. At a meeting of finance ministers on 7 November, Osborne secured a delay in the payment until July 2015 and claimed that he had halved what was due. It then emerged that the explanation for his victory was that the British rebate would apply to the additional contribution. A climbdown had taken place with George Osborne attempting to cloak it in a clever disguise, but only at the larger cost of a further souring of our EU relations.
But Juncker had managed to secure the formal backing of the European People’s party congress (the European federation of centre-right Christian Democrat parties) in a contested vote. The German Christian Democrats felt honourbound by that decision. Nor did Cameron take fully into account the changes in the Lisbon treaty where the European parliament now has the formal right to approve the nominee of the European council to be commission president. Once the major groups in the parliament had made clear that they would reject any nominee who was not the winning Spitzenkandidat in the European elections, Cameron’s position was done for.
First, for all the Syriza government’s rejection of the previous Greek bailouts and their harsh terms in their eyes, a clear majority of Greeks did not want to leave the euro. Second, a process of disintegration, once set in train, might not be confined to Greece. Whereas 10 years ago the rest of Europe might have taken UK withdrawal in its stride – and some true federalists would have welcomed it – now it would send a signal to the anti-European populists who have been gaining ground across the continent that the breakup of the EU was a real political possibility.